Pennock Co: an uncertain market for a water filterSection C · Syllabus D3 · 20 marks
Pennock Co makes water treatment equipment. It is considering launching a countertop water filter, which would need new production equipment and would be sold for five years. The marketing director's most likely forecast is sales of 50,000 filters a year, but the board is uncertain about demand and has asked for an analysis of the project's risk. The marketing director's estimates of annual demand are shown below.
| Annual demand (filters) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 30,000 | 0.25 |
| 50,000 | 0.50 |
| 65,000 | 0.25 |
Note 1: The equipment costs $1,500,000, payable at the start of year 1 (year 0). It will have no value at the end of year 5.
Note 2: Each filter sells for $40 and has a variable cost of $24. Incremental fixed costs are $300,000 a year.
Note 3: Sales volume, once known, is the same in each of the five years. All operating cash flows arise at the end of each year.
Note 4: Pennock Co's cost of capital is 11% a year. Ignore tax and inflation.
Note 5: The sensitivity of the net present value to a variable is the percentage change in that variable, in every year, that makes the net present value zero, with all other variables at the most likely forecast. Give money figures in $000 to the nearest $000 and percentages to one decimal place unless a part says otherwise.
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$000
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0 words · about 60 to 100 words
0 words · about 60 to 100 words