GCSE grade boundaries: 2027 estimates and history
Edexcel Maths HigherEstimated
208 marks
Our 2027 estimate repeats June 2026's boundary of 208.
Questions people ask
When are the 2027 GCSE grade boundaries published?
On results day in August 2027. AQA says it publishes boundaries at 8am UK time on students' results day.
Will grade boundaries go up in 2027?
No one can know. From 2024 to 2026 boundaries moved both ways; the history above shows your subject's own pattern. Our estimate simply repeats 2026 with a range.
Why no estimate for AQA English Language?
AQA updated its English Language questions and marking guidance for summer 2026, so earlier years do not compare with 2026 and there is only one summer to go on.
How accurate were these estimates before?
Tested on 2026 without seeing it, repeating 2025's boundary missed by 1.60 percentage points of the maximum on average: about 4 marks out of 240 in Maths.
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How we work this out
What it does
Every official boundary since 2018 for your subject and grade, and a 2027 range built the way that tested best.
GCSE (9-1) Maths, English Language, English Literature, Biology, Chemistry, Physics and Combined Science from AQA, Pearson Edexcel and OCR, in England. Summer series. November resits are shown apart because a different group sits them.
Method
- The 2027 baseline repeats June 2026's boundary. On 2025, that beat the median of the three previous summers; tested on 2026 without looking, it missed by 1.60 percentage points of the maximum on average (the median missed by 2.02), across 339 boundaries.
- The range: we measured how far every boundary moved from one summer to the next in 2024, 2025 and 2026, as a share of the maximum. The band is wide enough for 90% of those moves, separately for single and double awards, turned back into marks and rounded up.
- Tested the same way on 2026 (using only 2024 and 2025 moves), 99.1% of 2026 boundaries fell inside their band. That is a cautious band, not a 90% chance.
- 2020 and 2021 had no exams and 2022 was a transition year, so none of them are used. AQA English Language (8700) changed its questions and marking in 2026, so it gets no estimate.
- The one number shown is the central estimate: June 2026's boundary carried forward. The range around it is listed under your result.
Published figures
2027 estimates for grades 9, 7 and 4
Each estimate repeats June 2026, with a range as wide as 90% of earlier year-to-year moves. Tested on 2026 without looking at it: mean miss 1.60 percentage points (a three-year median missed by 2.02), and 99.1% of the 339 boundaries fell inside their band.
| Subject | Max | Grade 9 | Grade 7 | Grade 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQA Maths Higher (8300) | 240 | 219 (205–233) | 166 (152–180) | 63 (49–77) |
| Edexcel Maths Higher (1MA1) | 240 | 208 (194–222) | 146 (132–160) | 50 (36–64) |
| OCR Maths Higher (J560) | 300 | 264 (247–281) | 170 (153–187) | 57 (40–74) |
| AQA English Language (8700) | 160 | Not estimated | Not estimated | Not estimated |
| Edexcel English Language (1EN0) | 160 | 132 (123–141) | 115 (106–124) | 87 (78–96) |
| Edexcel English Language 2.0 (1EN2) | 160 | 137 (128–146) | 117 (108–126) | 85 (76–94) |
| OCR English Language (J351) | 160 | 132 (123–141) | 110 (101–119) | 75 (66–84) |
| AQA English Literature (8702) | 160 | 142 (133–151) | 113 (104–122) | 66 (57–75) |
| Edexcel English Literature (1ET0) | 160 | 136 (127–145) | 116 (107–125) | 75 (66–84) |
| OCR English Literature (J352) | 160 | 135 (126–144) | 104 (95–113) | 47 (38–56) |
| AQA Biology Higher (8461) | 200 | 133 (122–144) | 107 (96–118) | 52 (41–63) |
| Edexcel Biology Higher (1BI0) | 200 | 170 (159–181) | 147 (136–158) | 84 (73–95) |
| OCR Biology A (Gateway) Higher (J247) | 180 | 141 (131–151) | 121 (111–131) | 69 (59–79) |
| OCR Biology B (Twenty First Century) Higher (J257) | 180 | 138 (128–148) | 110 (100–120) | 53 (43–63) |
| AQA Chemistry Higher (8462) | 200 | 155 (144–166) | 120 (109–131) | 43 (32–54) |
| Edexcel Chemistry Higher (1CH0) | 200 | 165 (154–176) | 127 (116–138) | 55 (44–66) |
| OCR Chemistry A (Gateway) Higher (J248) | 180 | 163 (153–173) | 139 (129–149) | 76 (66–86) |
| OCR Chemistry B (Twenty First Century) Higher (J258) | 180 | 138 (128–148) | 111 (101–121) | 57 (47–67) |
| AQA Physics Higher (8463) | 200 | 157 (146–168) | 128 (117–139) | 67 (56–78) |
| Edexcel Physics Higher (1PH0) | 200 | 163 (152–174) | 134 (123–145) | 71 (60–82) |
| OCR Physics A (Gateway) Higher (J249) | 180 | 152 (142–162) | 131 (121–141) | 80 (70–90) |
| OCR Physics B (Twenty First Century) Higher (J259) | 180 | 141 (131–151) | 119 (109–129) | 71 (61–81) |
| Tested on | Boundaries | Last year repeated | Three-year median | Inside the band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 339 | 2.66 pts | 4.23 pts | No earlier data |
| 2025 | 348 | 2.18 pts | 2.93 pts | 94.8% |
| 2026 | 339 | 1.60 pts | 2.02 pts | 99.1% |