A-level grade boundaries 2027: predicted
Edexcel Maths (9MA0)Estimated
A* 254/300
June 2026's official boundary, carried forward.
Questions people ask
When are the 2027 A-level grade boundaries released?
On results day, Thursday 12 August 2027 (JCQ key dates). AQA publishes its boundaries at 8am on results days; check each board for its own timing.
Will A-level grade boundaries go up in 2027?
Nobody can know before the papers are sat and marked. Boundaries rise when papers turn out easier and fall when they turn out harder. Repeating 2026's boundary was the most accurate simple guess in past years, and the range shows the usual size of a move.
What will the A* boundary be for Edexcel A-level Maths in 2027?
The planning estimate is 254 out of 300, June 2026's boundary, with a range of 235 to 273. The official figure will be set after the exams.
How accurate were these predictions before?
The same frozen method, tested on the 2026 boundaries it had not seen, put 88.8% of whole-A-level boundaries inside its range. We will publish how it does against the real 2027 boundaries.
More free tools
Keep going
How we work this out
What it does
Planning estimates for every June 2027 A-level and paper boundary, beside every official one since 2017.
936 estimated thresholds: every grade on every current route and paper of the 21 A-level specifications in Maths, Further Maths, Physics, Chemistry and Biology (AQA, Pearson Edexcel, OCR) that was sat in June 2026. Frozen on 26 September 2026, before any 2027 exam.
Method
- Express every June boundary from 2023 onwards as a share of its maximum. Earlier years are left out: 2020 and 2021 had no summer exams and 2022 used transitional grading.
- Compare four simple methods on 2024 and 2025, each using only earlier years: last year again, the mean of the last three, their median, and last year plus half the recent drift. Each specification counts once, so dozens of Further Maths routes cannot outvote the rest.
- Last year again did best, for whole A-levels and for papers. The 2027 central estimate is therefore each route's or paper's June 2026 boundary.
- The planning range is the 80th percentile of past misses, at least 3 points: ±6.1 points of the maximum for a whole A-level and ±10.0 for a paper. The low end is rounded down and the high end up.
- The method and ranges were then tested, unchanged, on the 2026 boundaries they had never seen.
Published figures
2027 planning estimates for every specification
Central estimate and planning range for the whole A-level. These are estimates made before the 2027 exams, not official boundaries.
| Subject and specification | Out of | A* | A | B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maths: AQA 7357 | 300 | 260 (241 to 279) | 219 (200 to 238) | 182 (163 to 201) |
| Maths: Edexcel 9MA0 | 300 | 254 (235 to 273) | 210 (191 to 229) | 173 (154 to 192) |
| Maths: OCR A H240 | 300 | 250 (231 to 269) | 208 (189 to 227) | 172 (153 to 191) |
| Maths: OCR B (MEI) H640 | 275 | 223 (206 to 240) | 187 (170 to 204) | 155 (138 to 172) |
| Further Maths: AQA 7367 | 300 | 236 to 240 by route | 199 to 203 by route | 165 to 169 by route |
| Further Maths: Edexcel 9FM0 | 300 | 262 to 275 by route | 236 to 251 by route | 199 to 213 by route |
| Further Maths: OCR A H245 | 300 | 235 to 243 by route | 200 to 209 by route | 167 to 177 by route |
| Further Maths: OCR B (MEI) H645 | 360 | 261 to 294 by route | 219 to 254 by route | 186 to 217 by route |
| Physics: AQA 7408 | 250 | 186 to 191 by route | 157 to 162 by route | 132 to 136 by route |
| Physics: Edexcel 9PH0 | 300 | 239 (220 to 258) | 215 (196 to 234) | 182 (163 to 201) |
| Physics: OCR A H556 | 270 | 207 (190 to 224) | 178 (161 to 195) | 151 (134 to 168) |
| Physics: OCR B (Advancing Physics) H557 | 270 | 215 (198 to 232) | 185 (168 to 202) | 155 (138 to 172) |
| Chemistry: AQA 7405 | 300 | 255 (236 to 274) | 220 (201 to 239) | 181 (162 to 200) |
| Chemistry: Edexcel 9CH0 | 300 | 246 (227 to 265) | 212 (193 to 231) | 176 (157 to 195) |
| Chemistry: OCR A H432 | 270 | 234 (217 to 251) | 200 (183 to 217) | 164 (147 to 181) |
| Chemistry: OCR B (Salters) H433 | 270 | 226 (209 to 243) | 198 (181 to 215) | 167 (150 to 184) |
| Biology: AQA 7402 | 260 | 199 (183 to 215) | 174 (158 to 190) | 146 (130 to 162) |
| Biology: Edexcel B 9BI0 | 300 | 218 (199 to 237) | 189 (170 to 208) | 160 (141 to 179) |
| Biology: Edexcel A (Salters-Nuffield) 9BN0 | 300 | 220 (201 to 239) | 196 (177 to 215) | 170 (151 to 189) |
| Biology: OCR A H420 | 270 | 204 (187 to 221) | 176 (159 to 193) | 150 (133 to 167) |
| Biology: OCR B (Advancing Biology) H422 | 270 | 193 (176 to 210) | 173 (156 to 190) | 153 (136 to 170) |