UniGeniusIB Maths

IB predicted grades: offer stress test

How accurate are IB predicted grades? No current published figure answers that for individual students.

Or type your own offer below. Always check the course page for your year.

Predicted HL subjects
Does the offer name HL grades?

IB offer stress test

Enter your predictions and offer

Your result

Questions people ask

How accurate are IB predicted grades?

No current published figure answers that for individual students. The IB's May 2020 letter said that from 2010 to 2015, in 55% of cases students achieved a grade different from their teacher's prediction, up or down; a 2014 presentation hosted by the IB reported a standard error of 2.61 Diploma points for one university's applicants. Both are old, so the tool uses fixed scenarios instead.

Why 1, 3 and 5 points?

They are fixed, round steps chosen to show where an offer breaks, not estimates of what will happen. A one-point drop is a single grade in one subject; five points is a grade lost in several subjects.

How are HL conditions like 7, 6, 6 checked?

Best first: your highest HL grade against 7, the next against 6 and the next against 6. The order of your subjects does not matter unless the offer names a subject.

Does this give my chance of getting an offer?

No. It never gives a percentage, because no reliable data supports one.

How we work this out

What it does

Enter your predicted grades and your offer to see which conditions still hold if your final total is 1, 3 or 5 points lower.

An IB Diploma offer written as a total, three HL grades and, if you add one, a grade in a named subject, checked against your predicted total and HL grades.

Method

  1. The total is taken down by exactly 1, 3 and 5 points and compared with the offer's total.
  2. HL grades are matched best first, as offers are read: HL 7, 6, 6 against 6, 6, 6 means your best HL grade needs a 6, your second a 6, and so on.
  3. Where the lost points fall is unknown, so for HL grades and the named subject the tool finds the smallest drop that could break the condition. Predicted 7, 6, 6 against an offer of 7, 6, 6 breaks with one point off the 7, so every drop is marked as a risk.
  4. Each row is blue when every condition still holds wherever the points fall, amber when a condition could break, and red when the total is missed.

Sources

Checked .