Item set: Mereford Endowment: choosing an asset-only allocation
The Mereford University Endowment has no explicit liabilities, and its investment committee uses an asset-only approach to strategic asset allocation. Chief investment officer Sofia Brandt, CFA, presents three candidate portfolios from the endowment's efficient frontier.
Exhibit 1. Candidate portfolios (annual figures)
Portfolio A: expected return 7.2%; standard deviation 12.0%
Portfolio B: expected return 9.0%; standard deviation 16.0%
Portfolio C: expected return 5.4%; standard deviation 8.0%
Brandt explains two ways the committee could choose among them. The first uses the committee's risk aversion coefficient of 4 in the utility function U = E(R) - 0.005 x lambda x variance, with returns and standard deviations in percent. The second is Roy's safety-first criterion, using a minimum acceptable annual return of 3.0%, which a trustee proposed because the endowment's spending rule becomes politically difficult when returns fall below that level.
Brandt then turns to the inputs behind the frontier. The committee's own return forecasts produced, in earlier optimizations, allocations that were concentrated in two or three asset classes and that changed sharply when a forecast moved by a few tenths of a percent. Brandt wants a method that starts from the returns implied by global market capitalization weights and then adjusts them for the committee's views, weighted by the committee's confidence in each view.
To illustrate the starting point, she reverse-optimizes the expected excess return on global real estate securities. She uses the relation: implied excess return = lambda x covariance of the asset with the global market portfolio, with a market risk aversion coefficient of 3.0 and returns expressed as decimals.
Exhibit 2. Reverse optimization inputs
Standard deviation of global real estate securities: 20.0%
Standard deviation of the global market portfolio: 14.0%
Correlation of global real estate securities with the global market portfolio: 0.75
Market risk aversion coefficient: 3.0